Research Hypotheses H0 1 domestic debt has no significant impact on the economic growth of Nigeria. ~At^s��u*�h.�|4�D��N�R��(9 Provided that public debt is on a downward trajectory, a In particular, a persistent high level of public debt can consequently trigger detrimental effects on capital accumulation and productivity, which potentially has a negative impact on economic growth (Kumar and Woo, 2010). It is in this sense that borrowing can first be beneficial, so long as it is modest. variables. Regardless of the threshold, however, we find significant negative long-run effects of public debt build-up on output growth. ��Ӎ�r�p��xD����Ϗ��O����vQҡ�wKẘ�,��D��Bl�7�Q�h|�LJ�me�d�5��6���7�B���`S���>�u=���xMO@�ߔ�� ����5��(VS This increase in public debt for these countries in the region. To analyze the relationship public debt and the economic growth of Nigeria. A sharp increase in public debt has strong negative effects on economic growth. There are several channels through which high debt could adversely impact medium- and long-run growth which have received attention in the literature: high public debt can adversely affect capital accumulation and growth via higher long-term interest rates (Gale x��=˒�qwF�pY�X6��� Such a … The impact of a change in public debt is also analysed using asymmetric panel ARDL method. Nonlinear effects might be more complex and difficult to model than previously thought. Especially after the financial crisis of 2008, the impact of public debt on the overall economic growth has being a subject for analysis although not … While the economic growth rate is likely to have a linear negative impact on the public debt-to-GDP ratio (a decline in the economic growth rate is, ceteris paribus, associated with an increase in the public debt-to-GDP ratio), high levels of public debt are likely to be detrimental for growth. x���MO�0�������۱���&-�6a������i��ǝ1m���5BM��y��f�[5��������M���BY����Z�4\��g�a� increase in many countries’ public debt-to-GDP ratio. 3 0 obj The federal government pays for defense equipment, health care, and building construction, and contracts with private firms who then hire new employees. They also showed that economic growth declines considerably if the public debt-to- GDP ratio goes above 90%. Another finding of the research was that public debt indirectly effects growth via public investment. endobj 798 Words4 Pages. endobj government debt External debt can be described as the situation where governments face budget deficit due to the hig… The following tabl… 4 0 obj This study recommends to future scholars to research on qualitative variables of Economic Growth such as: corruption, political instability and While high levels of public debt are likely to be deleterious for growth, this negative effect is non-linear and is observed only above a certain level of debt. One of the most important factors of pushing investments into the Albanian economy is public debt. Thus an economy grows much faster without public debt than with debt. survey on public debt).2 This paper focuses on the long-run effects of public debt. <>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text/ImageB/ImageC/ImageI] >>/MediaBox[ 0 0 595.44 841.68] /Contents 4 0 R/Group<>/Tabs/S/StructParents 0>> Fiscal policy holds crucial implications for economic growth in both the short and long run. By 2005, the Kenyan public debt had reduced from highs of 80% of GDP in 2002 to 27% of GDP in 2005. The government then initiated investments in infrastructure. A 1% point increase in debt servicing (as a % of GDP) decreases the public investment by 0.2% points. The findings of the study reveal that in the full OECD model public debt exerts a significant negative permanent and positive transitory effect on economic growth. Our results indicate that an increase in government debt is negatively associated with economic growth in both the short and long-run. References Cecchetti, Stephen, Madhusudan Mohanty, and Fabrizio Zampolli (2011), "The real effects of debt", BIS Working Papers No. The survey finds diverse and, in some cases, inconsistent evidence on the relative impact of public debt on economic growth. sI�C���f0��w 0r���S�>����ʬ��;;YUY�ά����Ӈ���i��=q:���n6�����{����������n}��������^�\����NW���n0��F�U�/����.�7O�����'߽{����j�TU�ŻۧOԢ���E�TM�x���'�?���Y����b�~�q��z��������U�������9a�v�^i���(��3�A��l��C��g��5��!�?���J �a}�����-��%|��O8MOc��Z�m��ǧO^�sT Instability might be a result of nonlinear effects changing over time, across countries and economic conditions. However, the main focus of this study is an overview of the effects of external debt on the growth of Nigerian economy on measured by the gross domestic product. 1 0 obj endobj stream The Effects Of Public Debt On Economic Growth 1893 Words | 8 Pages. 2 0 obj stream between public debt and economic growth, once we account for the impact of global factors and their spillover effects. %PDF-1.5 1 0 obj It is against this background that Reinhart and Rogoff (2010) pointed out the existence of strong negative effects of high public debt on economic growth. It is a source of economic growth and stability. But, at high levels, private and public debt are bad, increasing volatility and retarding growth. The study investigates the effect of public debt on economic growth in Kenya, between 1980-2013.The choices of period was guided by data availability and escalation of Kenya’s public debt. The positive effects of public debt relate to the fact that in resource-starved economies debt financing if done properly leads to higher growth and adds to their capacity to service and repay external and internal debt. context of the EAC region. In the first years of transition, in an extreme absence of the domestic production, public debt was used to finance current public administration spending. How the Large U.S. Debt Affects the Economy . The empirical investigation of the effect of external debt on the economic growth of Nigeria shall be … <> <> 3 0 obj Directly public debt has no effect on investment but debt servicing has an inverse relation with public investment. Our conclusion is that, at low levels, debt is good. There are a lot of empirical studies which focus on developing countries and look at the relationship between … While there is evidence that public debt is negatively correlated with economic growth, correlation does not necessarily imply causality. <> Beyond this level, any increase of public debt has a negative effect on economic growth. JEL classification: C22, F33, H63, O40, O52 Keywords: Public debt, economic growth, … In recent years the size of public debt raises significant concern to individuals, governments, investors and the whole body of international organizations as well as financial institutions at large. \���=�3o���g��^g�ѯ^�c�n�y��c���fϚl�uC��u9@�Y�RZ���n��ϑ��v��]4-d?a���jt�\=9���ƃ����+{��̲�V�¹���ޭ �l���e�l���ܡKBq�R�j ��N�|1��=�� mzJ{��'G��M��+���#��y¯w���@X�M�s�������́�o�����=�~r]��Z��R)�B��%�Š+��+�3��m��T�>D��[$�����~��Q�}&l>��.���\Z���h�����,�:�;̢T�g����`���li�^U��`�����bv �V�[GA6���M���K5��$���]�H��[���LJ�[�h���]�E�`�Mi�'պ���ÁDË?����b��7l ��4q��ʈ��q�M2q�"���M}�@���W=����I>OQ��gJ����@j�Y�J�!����#n����ؽ�0����ZH@'���ܪ����1S���?p�.h���;K9�����"!v������1'��1��gR)�g��%^�p�ğc��m\�qH�\�4��\@ԬCr�k��n��GG�c�y�]U��>����ݔ\�h:��j �%m�j�HR�(�'�+���}�k��N ק��xi�@ˍ;�{����^G���ƨJ���B |[,`���bU��SM'��Y� �R8��:��q����H���g�b���|��R��c ��. These actions have brought into sharp focus the scale of the crisis in Ghana’s financial and economic wellbeing (Nyarko, 2014). In the short run, the economy and voters benefit from deficit spending because it drives economic growth and stability. The case that public debt has causal effect on economic growth still needs to be made. 352, Bank for International Settlements. The research work under review is aimed at the impact of public debt on Nigerian Economy. 2 0 obj Several studies have analyzed the effect of public debt on economic growth, but, the author is not. %���� There are both positive and negative possible effects of public debt on the economy. Although the majority of the surveyed literature supports the negative effect of public debt on economic growth, several other studies have found a long-run positive impact of public debt on economic growth through the fiscal multiplier effect. Economic growth improved from 2% in 2003 to 7% in 2007. For years (after 2002), the Albanian Government owes a debt to finance its investments. The results indicated that Public Debt, Unemployment rate and Inflation rate were negatively related to Economic Growth, but not significant as indicators of Economic Growth. H0 2 external debt does not significantly affect the economic growth of Nigeria. <> On the debt-growth relationship, for the whole sample over the period of the study, high public debt (in excess of 90%) has typically been associated with average growth of 0.2% vs 2.6% when debt is low (under 30% of GDP), while for the two middle categories (debt between 30 and 90% of GDP), growth rates are 2.1% and 1.5%, respectively. iii. aware of studies that have analyzed the effects of external debt on economic growth in the. t1��:N��0O�����]+��o�sJ�u5�D���Y�n�����6����?��J��|Z`���fڤ�4�1��|�vut�ą��(�R���߷oW�-b�m_�Vb��%�f���}Vm��ٴEо�V¶%��T���E6��R�f��|n[� the view that public debt always has a negative impact on the long-run performance of EA member states, whilst its short-run effect may be positive depending on the country. ��7&"����HD6v���4U�BJ7U������?�o��G�;�`������p��Ն�O[m ��d���W�i��*!y� }Eq-+-?k�Evڡj��F�3��(�?��Ϩ;��j�a�ο�eDZISO*2]��q[�̐�YX�5���f�����f��d�^O��F��m��l/�D��?�\�������c�����P�SN4G��/��|�B3�/_�dL*ȴW��u_��LXk�Âm��y�Z��� ��٠=@�y�F���m��0v��ͤ�5z>,k5�0�I�PZ~d��� j����J�i�Ə��U�}5ʠ^����ɞ�5����[T��^�y��sEisEQ��0�5�%��G�{�����z�-7�ƀ%閷����+�z���q��ë��8 >]�4l0̷È���F;u-�OW�˧��X���iһ8�V�}{���O��:NMsR,y����;�BG��hJ�1���O��!��Hn�A�0�������-Î�r�˥u�U=̇z8��^|DI���3�D�=�;�4t@�L��#�L?�׾�u�2-V9��X� O�-��0%�c!~B$�I�k[�����#���~8�D����Ө���i�Gv� 7%g7f���V��z�hu_ �:�?푢����/��(�D�;���3B�KI��#�xm����o��VSt*ш YX��х�������� ��8KT+�����ƒ Using simple descriptive statistics, they demonstrated forcefully that economic These findings are further confirmed through the use of the well-known Hansen threshold method, which found a threshold of 49.83%. The link between public debt and economic growth could be driven by the fact that it is low economic growth that leads to high levels of debt. endobj It will indicate that the relationship between the ratio of public debt to GDP and economic growth appears graphically as an inverted U shape. The financial sector greatly improved, and Equity Bank Kenya became one of the largest banks in East Africa. The magnitude of the negative permanent effect of debt was found to be larger than the positive transitory effect. <>>> �܇�K��˽L!�o������#|�嬩�b��mM��0��/�2�!v��B��/S$7���. Furthermore, Pattilo et al (2002) assert that at low levels, debt has positive effects on growth but above the threshold point accumulated debt begins to have a negative impact on growth. endobj <>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text/ImageB/ImageC/ImageI] >>/MediaBox[ 0 0 595.32 841.92] /Contents 4 0 R/Group<>/Tabs/S/StructParents 0>> Beyond this threshold, a one percentage point increase of the public debt-to-GDP reduces economic growth by 0.08 percent. The relationship between public debt and economic growth has recently emerged again as a hot topic of debate in academia and between policy makers in various countries of the world. Reinhart and Rogoff (2010 a) found the existence of strong negative effects of high public debt-to-GDP ratio on the real GDP growth rate. Recent narratives of excessive borrowing by the Ghanaian government for various projects, shows the country’s appetite for more and more extortionate and unaffordable foreign loans. The Impact Of Public Debt On The Economy. In order to analyze the economic impact of public debt on economic growth, we have considered data from 2005-2016. 4 0 obj Their impact on investment was zero. Those who argue that external debt has positive effect on the economy do that from the stand point that external debt will increase capital inflow and when used for productive ventures, accelerates the pace of economic growth. Bad, increasing volatility and retarding growth, at high levels, debt is negatively with. Negative permanent effect of public debt has strong negative effects on economic growth of Nigeria economic the. For these countries in the short run, the author is not ( Nyarko, 2014 ) in East.. This level, any increase of public debt years ( after 2002 ), the economy and voters benefit deficit. The financial sector greatly improved, and Equity Bank Kenya became one of the crisis in Ghana’s financial and conditions! The effect of debt was found to be larger than the positive transitory effect the transitory! 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