But you don’t get that impression from RCP, since they’re not fairly reflecting the polls.”. Writing on Twitter, The New York Times’ Nate Cohn suggested the RealClearPolitics averages shouldn’t be treated as credible — even if they turn out to be correct. Here is a table of key states from 2016 comparing the final RCP polling averages to the final election results. RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination USA Today/Suffolk University Poll released on October 27: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by ten points in a one-on-one race and by nine points in a four way race. President Trump Job Approval Politico/Morning Consult Approve 43, Disapprove 55 Disapprove +12 President Trump Job Approval Economist/YouGov Approve 43, … Polls. WATCH: Trucks Depart Pfizer Facility With First U.S. Originally Posted by Smash255 RCP National average currently stands at Biden +6.7 Five Thirty Eight Polling Aggregate Biden +7.2 Five Thirty Eight RCP National Average: Trump vs. Biden - Elections - Page 37 - City-Data Forum Polls are tightening as Election Day rapidly approaches, but few polls show President Trump enjoying a lead in the key Rust Belt states he carried in 2016. AP Poll released on October 26: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 14 points, 4. Wisconsin: Biden +6.3. Final 2016 RCP Average: Trump +0.2, Results: Trump +1.2 (Trump +1.0 Ahead of Polls) Final 2016 RCP Average: Trump +0.2, Results: Trump +1.2 (Trump +1.0 Ahead of Polls) Polling Data Polls. “Trump may win in the end, but that won’t vindicate RCP,” Cohn wrote. As of the 25th, they had Biden with a lead of 6.6%. Latest Polls; RCP National Average; Top Battlegrounds Average; Trump Job Approval; Biden, Trump Favorability; Fav/Unfavs vs. 2016; All Election Polls; State Polls; Senate Polls; Generic Ballot; Direction of Country; RCP Election 2020. NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll released on October 10: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 14 points in a one-on-one contest and 11 points  in a four way race, 3. I will be shocked if Biden wins. Or to keep it anonymous, click here. @trafalgar_group @RobertCahaly, Full report here: https://t.co/Hd8SYFk1Az pic.twitter.com/PkphRgipjQ, — RestorationPAC (@restorationpac) October 15, 2020, Our new @trafalgar_group #2020Election #BattlegroundState #PApoll conducted Oct 10-12 shows Biden leading with:47.4% @JoeBiden,45.1% @realDonaldTrump,3.1% @Jorgensen4POTUS,2.6% all others,1.6% Und. Michigan Presidential Polls 2020 vs. 2016. Gotta disagree with Newt on this. ET, November 3, 2020. Iowa: Trump vs. Biden. Please let us know if you're having issues with commenting. Biden previously led polling in all four states, but saw his advantage dwindle in recent days. Shipment of Coronavirus Vaccine, JUST IN: Trump Posts Call for Bill Barr to Be Fired TODAY if He Knew About Hunter Biden Tax Investigation in April, WATCH: SNL’s Weekend Update Goes Off The Rails As Kate McKinnon Cracks Up While Trying to Give Colin Jost the Vaccine, GOP Rep. Who Backed TX Lawsuit Goes Off the Rails When Chris Cuomo Confronts Him on Voter Fraud Claims: ‘I Don’t Have Proof That Men Landed on the Moon’, NBC News’ Frank Figliuzzi Warns Supreme Court Decision Could Strengthen Trump and Potential for Violence, ‘THEY WERE IN ON IT!’ MyPillow Guy Accuses Fox News of Rigging Election Against Trump in Bonkers Rally Speech, After Supreme Court Rejection, Sean Hannity Asks Rudy Giuliani What ‘Plan B’ Is: ‘Do You See Any Other Legal Path?’, ‘Like a Third World Country’: Trump Baselessly Tries to Claim Biden Would Be ‘Illegitimate President’, Trump Falsely Insists He Won as He Complains to Brian Kilmeade About Courts Rejecting Claims: ‘No Judge Has the Courage’, Alex Jones Says at Pro-Trump March Joe Biden Will Be Removed From Office ‘One Way Or Another!’. The Georgia-based polling firm weights its surveys for “social desirability bias,” taking into account the idea that some Trump voters are afraid to be honest with pollsters. 8. Fairleigh Dickinson University Poll released on October 6: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by ten points, 10. Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. Polls. Polls. Trafalgar’s last surveys leading up to this week’s election suggested Trump is leading Biden by 5 percent of the vote in both Ohio and Georgia, provoking polling analysts on Tuesday to extend their criticism of Trafalgar to RealClearPolitics. These averages were posted as of 5:00 a.m. As Breitbart News recently reported, over a dozen polls in October 2016 also showed Clinton with a sizeable lead over Trump nationally. He was bullish on Romney in 2012, even going as far as saying the polls were weighted incorrectly (I believed that too then) and he was wrong. Polls. RCP, from what I understand, pretty much takes a straight average over several days. By contrast, Joe Biden has NEVER trailed Trump in the Real Clear Politics average of the polls. And they also include polls from over two weeks ago, but their weighting depends on the quality and quantity of recent polling. Several showed the former secretary of state holding a double-digit lead: 1. Polls. RCP calculates its average by looking back at the previous two weeks of qualifying polls, and producing a raw, unweighted average. We will be having an even bigger victory than that of 2016. We will be having an even bigger victory than that of 2016. Trump has publicly questioned the accuracy of recent polls repeatedly on social media. Biden +4 in NC for the new poll. President Donald Trump overcame Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden's lead in RealClearPolitics polling averages in four states in the final 48 hours leading up to the 2020 election. 9. RCP National Average (2020 vs. 2016) | Top Battlegrounds (20 ' 20 vs. 20 ' 16) | Favorability Ratings (20 ' 20 vs. 20 ' 16)RCP Electoral Map | Changes in Electoral Count | Map With No Toss Ups | No Toss Up Changes | Latest Polls New NC poll was released today, taken after the debate. Latest Polls; RCP National Average; Top Battlegrounds Average; Trump Job Approval; Biden, Trump Favorability; Fav/Unfavs vs. 2016; All Election Polls; State Polls; Senate Polls; Generic Ballot; Direction of Country; Election 2020. TL;DR: RCP only averages polls over the last two weeks. Real Clear Politics Average of the polls: Trump/Clinton2016 vs. Trump/Biden2020 In the Real Clear Politics Average of the Polls, Clinton trailed Trump at two different points, May 22, 2016 to May 25, 2016 by 0.2%, and July 29, 2016 to July 30, 2016 by 1.2%. Monmouth University Poll released on October 17: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 12 points, 5. SurveyUSA/Boston Globe Poll released on October 14:  Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by ten points, 11. RCP Poll Average. Saint Leo University Poll released on October 26: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 11 points. RCP Poll Average. The Radical Left Anarchists, Agitators, Looters, and just plain Lunatics, will not be happy, but they will behave! A snapshot of Saturday’s morning’s RealClearPolitics (RCP) average in each state is as follows: Michigan: Biden +7.2. PRRI/Brookings Poll released on October 19: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 15 points, 2. “If Trump wins the polls were really, really wrong. Latest Polls; RCP National Average; Top Battlegrounds Average; Trump Job Approval; Biden, Trump Favorability; Fav/Unfavs vs. 2016; All Election Polls; State Polls; Senate Polls; Generic Ballot; Direction of Country; RCP Election 2020. And as newer polls come out this week and the older ones fall off the overall average will tighten as well. CNBC Poll released on October 27: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by nine points. RCP Poll Average. The Democratic nominee’s lead in North Carolina — the most competitive state on the list — took a hit as a result of an InsiderAdvantage poll, conducted between October 26-November 1, that showed Trump leading 48-44 percent. Latest Polls; RCP National Average; Top Battlegrounds Average; Trump Job Approval; Biden, Trump Favorability; Fav/Unfavs vs. 2016; All Election Polls; State Polls; Senate Polls; Generic Ballot; Direction of Country; RCP Election 2020. Now let's take the differential in the 2016 RCP average for each state and add the difference to the current RCP state averages for this election. The final polling averages showed Hillary Clinton winning the three crucial swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in 2016 — a fact critics of current polling point to as the presidential race enters its final stretch. Similarly, in the same time span, only three polls in RCP’s average have shown Trump leading in Wisconsin, and only one has had him leading in Pennsylvania, with two others reporting ties. Atlantic/PRRI Poll released on October 9: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 11 points, 7. The Radical Left Anarchists, Agitators, Looters, and just plain Lunatics, will not be happy, but they will behave!” Trump said in September: The Real Polls are starting to look GREAT! President Donald Trump overcame Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s polling lead in four states during the last five days leading up to the 2020 election, according to averages maintained by RealClearPolitics. “The Real Polls are starting to look GREAT! Biden’s lead took the biggest hit in Iowa, where he was leading the RealClearPolitics average by 1.2 percent as recently as October 30, after polls from Emerson, Quinnipiac and Emerson Advantage suggested Trump held the edge. Polls. Have a tip or story idea? A snapshot of Saturday’s morning’s RealClearPolitics (RCP) average in each state is as follows: Since the beginning of the year, only three surveys included in RCP’s average have shown Trump leading in Michigan. Bloomberg Poll released on October 19: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by nine points, 13. This has advantages and disadvantages. The website’s polling averages show Biden with a lead of 7.2 percent nationally as of Election Day. Latest Polls; RCP National Average; Top Battlegrounds Average; Trump Job Approval; Biden, Trump Favorability; Fav/Unfavs vs. 2016; All Election Polls; State Polls; Senate Polls; Generic Ballot; Direction of Country; RCP Election 2020. Biden enjoyed his greatest lead in the state at the end of July, when RealClearPolitics’ average showed him holding support from 50 percent of the state’s voters to 45.3 percent for Trump. [email protected]. See Report: https://t.co/eLE6hjCZhO pic.twitter.com/Qwcd4z4Yk9, — Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) October 13, 2020, 2020 ElectionPoliticsDonald TrumpHillary ClintonMichiganPennsylvaniaWisconsin. ABC Poll released on October 23: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 12 points, 6. The website’s polling averages now suggest Trump leads in Iowa by 2 percent of the vote; Georgia (1 percent); North Carolina (0.2 percent); and Ohio (1.4 percent). Latest Polls; RCP National Average; Top Battlegrounds Average; Trump Job Approval; Biden, Trump Favorability; Fav/Unfavs vs. 2016; All Election Polls; State Polls; Senate Polls; Generic Ballot; Direction of Country; RCP Election 2020. The race is tightening, says 2016's most accurate pollster. 47.6. I won it all against Crooked Hillary! Have a tip we should know? He also enjoys a narrow polling lead in key swing states, including .09 percent in Arizona and Florida and 1.2 percent in Pennsylvania. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Not all polling averages are created equal. Final RCP Polling Averages Had Hillary Clinton Winning MI, WI, and PA - The Polls are Fake just like much of the reported news. According to, I guess the guy who owns RCP, stated on foxnews tonight that the polls are tightening, especially the state polls. Latest Polls; RCP National Average; Top Battlegrounds Average; Trump Job Approval; Biden, Trump Favorability; Fav/Unfavs vs. 2016; All Election Polls; State Polls; Senate Polls; Generic Ballot; Direction of Country; RCP Election 2020. Pennsyvlania: Biden +5.6. Recent polling by Trafalgar Group factored heavily into RealClearPolitics’ calculation for Georgia and Ohio. Notably, Trafalgar Group, which Tom Bevan, co-founder and president of RCP, has referred to as “one of the most accurate polling operations in America,” has recently had Trump and Biden statistically tied in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania: Our new @trafalgar_group #2020Election #BattlegroundState #MIpoll conducted Oct 11-14 still shows a thin Trump lead: 46.5% @realDonaldTrump,45.9% @JoeBiden,2.5% @Jorgensen4POTUS,2.2% all others,2.2% Und. Email us. Latest Polls; RCP National Average; Top Battlegrounds Average; Trump Job Approval; Biden, Trump Favorability; Fav/Unfavs vs. 2016; All Election Polls; State Polls; Senate Polls; Generic Ballot; Direction of Country; RCP Election 2020. A Des Moines Register poll conducted between October 26-29 was the most favorable to Trump, suggesting he led Biden 48-41 percent. Here’s how wrong the Real Clear Politics average of polls and the polling ‘gospel’ at Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight were about the president’s polling numbers: “A really rough night for polls and a disastrous night for certain pollsters such as Quinnipiac who showed Biden doing so much better,” statistician Josh Jordan tweeted. Trump’s suspicion prompts a look at the 2016 polls, which famously had Trump losing the key swing states. Without getting conspiratorial, the RCP poll numbers from which the final RCP average (Clinton +2.9%) is derived give rise to two observations: First, two distinctly separate sets of polls … That methodology has included asking respondents who they believed their neighbors planned to vote for, as well as differences in how Trafalgar judges who is most likely to vote. Fivethirtyeight uses fancy math to make their best guess based on available polling. 45.6. NC RCP Average Biden +1.2 Now NC is added to the states with increased RCP average for … It was also one of the only polling firms to correctly predict Trump would win Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2016. The final polling averages showed Hillary Clinton winning the three crucial swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in 2016. Polls. I’ll certainly be nothing but honest about that fact. — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 8, 2020. Iowa: Trump vs. Biden. As of this writing, the RCP average has Biden up 7.7 points over Trump, more than half a point greater than yesterday’s update, while the FiveThirtyEight average … In reality, Trump won Michigan in by .3 percent, Pennsylvania by .7 percent, and Wisconsin by .7 percent. Since the beginning of the year, only three surveys included in RCP’s average have shown Trump leading in Michigan. Trump (R) +2.0. Fivethirtyeight weights polls based on past performance and methodology. CBS Poll released on October 17: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by nine points, 12. See Report: https://t.co/dcPtMMUSpx pic.twitter.com/l1whvPtn1f, — Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) October 16, 2020, Trump is edging closer in Wisconsin, our brand new RP/Trafalgar poll shows. Has publicly questioned the accuracy of recent polls repeatedly on social media secretary of state holding a lead. Nothing but honest about that fact October 6: Hillary Clinton leading Trump. Predict Trump would win Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2016 nothing but honest about that.. Showed the former secretary of state holding a double-digit lead: 1 trailed Trump in end! Showed Clinton with a sizeable lead over Trump nationally with a sizeable lead over Trump.. First U.S lead: 1 this week and the older ones fall off the overall will... Final RCP polling averages to the final election results also showed Clinton a. Showed Clinton with a lead of 7.2 percent nationally as of election Day, Wisconsin! 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